Monday, September 25, 2006
Pakistan and the War on Terror
Pakistan with its huge population and nuclear weapons is probably the most important center in the conflict better known as the War on Terror. Right now Pakistan is more or less in the Pro-American camp. This might not last. John Robb has some sobering comments on this topic.
The key question is, how secure is his rule? The answer is unfortunately, not very.
If the Taliban succeed in driving NATO out of Afganistan, then Musharraf will almost certainly cave into most or all of their demands. That is if he survives, since he would become the insurgencies main target. If he falls, the world will becomee a much scarier place.
[W]hile the Taliban/al Qaeda strategy rests on a broad base of support, the US/NATO strategy rests on the survival of one man: Pervez Musharraf (our strong man).
The key question is, how secure is his rule? The answer is unfortunately, not very.
All signs that Musharraf is in retreat. He is likely to seek a further detente with the Taliban since it may be the only way to remain in power. What he sees across the border in Afganistan is likely to push him further into the Taliban camp.
After the loss of a reported 3,000 troops, Pakistan has ceded the tribal areas of Waziristan (population: 800,000) to pro-Taliban local rule. Weapons will be returned, outposts will be abandoned, and compensation will be paid.
Pakistan has cut a ceasefire with the Taliban's Mullah Omar. It also prevents US/NATO troops from crossing the border to pursue Taliban forces.
2,500 Taliban and al Qaeda militants have been released from Pakistani jails.
NATO, as the leader of the counter-insurgency in Afghanistan (unlike the USSR before it) will not mount a serious effort. Signs of stress are already evident. NATO will quickly fold under the mounting pressure (which may spell, for all intents and purposes, the end of that treaty organization).
Unlike the opposition mounted by Pakistan against the USSR in Afghanistan, Pakistan's ISI is not in control of these forces.
The Taliban and al Qaeda is already importing the open source methods developed in Iraq to central Asia. These tactics and organizational approaches will work better in Pakistan, due to its level of development, societal complexity and urbanization, than in Afghanistan.
If the Taliban succeed in driving NATO out of Afganistan, then Musharraf will almost certainly cave into most or all of their demands. That is if he survives, since he would become the insurgencies main target. If he falls, the world will becomee a much scarier place.
