Thursday, August 17, 2006
UNIFIL's Problem in Lebanon
So the Lebanese army plus a UN force is supposed to disarm Hezbullah.
Billmon (who seems to be getting better by the day) has some observations on this topic.
Peacekeeping works when all combatants want out of the fight. Israel wants out, Lebanon wants out... Hezbullah might want out. At this point it has won, it might get more by pushing harder... but then again it might loose part of its support in Lebanon if it pushes the issue. Frankly the amibiguity actually adds to its victory. If it wants peace but wants UNIFIL to be as weak as possible then it just has to play up the ambiguousness of its support for the ceasefire.
Jax
[edit UNIFIL not UNIFIL... which stands for United Nations Interim Force In Lebanon. It was created in 1978.]
Billmon (who seems to be getting better by the day) has some observations on this topic.
A Lebanese general was ordered arrested Wednesday for appearing in a videotape drinking tea with IDF soldiers who had occupied his south Lebanon barracks during their incursion of the country . . Daoud was shown having tea with smiling Israeli soldiers and walking with them in the base courtyard.The Lebanese army is largely a useless organ except for putting down riots. None of its potential opponents are the least bit worried about it. Daoud must have recognized this, and known that the best way to protect his troops was to roll over belly up... if, as a Lebanese christian, he didn't simply support Israel's desire to destroy Hezbullah.
Hizbullah appears willing to ignore Gen. Daoud's Step 'n Fetch It routine -- although any Christian Lebanese Army officers who are tempted to repeat it after they deploy to the south should probably make out their wills first. But will it accept the presence of a large force of French and/or Turkish and/or Malaysian troops in its backyard? One assumes the real reason for the delay in assembling the force is that the French and/or the Turks and/or the Malaysians are asking themselves the same question.
Peacekeeping works when all combatants want out of the fight. Israel wants out, Lebanon wants out... Hezbullah might want out. At this point it has won, it might get more by pushing harder... but then again it might loose part of its support in Lebanon if it pushes the issue. Frankly the amibiguity actually adds to its victory. If it wants peace but wants UNIFIL to be as weak as possible then it just has to play up the ambiguousness of its support for the ceasefire.
Jax
[edit UNIFIL not UNIFIL... which stands for United Nations Interim Force In Lebanon. It was created in 1978.]
