The Great Game

As we watch the horror in Lebanon, an idea has been put forward by the Bush administration that might not be down to their usual level of grotesque incompetence. The idea of a NATO force in Lebanon to strengthen the Lebanese state is in principle a good idea. The problem is in the implementation of this idea. The Globe and Mail has a good overview article here. The basic idea is similar to the current Afganistan campaign; an operation to strengthen a organs of a failed state so that it can serve as a guarrantor of security to the global community for its territory. Given that this is a US initiative, Israel is in favour:

Israeli Defence Minister Amir Peretz said Sunday that his country would support the deployment of a NATO-led force, and he discussed the idea with German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier. “Due to the weakness of the Lebanese army, Israel supports the possibility of deploying a multinational force with a strong mandate,” [said Peretz].

Due to America's unpopularity in, well, the world but the Middle East particular it cannot lead this campaign. Given the American military and political incompetence of recent years it is goo that America has recognized its limitations in this regard. The obvious candiate in NATO to lead is Turkey, and the Bushites has realized this:

U.S. President George W. Bush on the weekend spoke by phone with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, NATO's only member for a majority Muslim population and a candidate to lead the proposed force in Lebanon.

This idea has one major problem. Lebanon is not as weak a state as Afganistan. It is a democracy and has just recently shook off the overt signs of foreign occuptaion that has lasted 29 years. The Lebanese are begining to coalesce into a nation from the tribes that they have been previously. Another foreign occuptation, especialty one that is ham fisted an unsubtle will not only set back this process (Which is the strongest arab democracy) but could easily result this intervention creating a counter-NATO insurgency.

The clearest solution to this conundrum is to put Turkey in military control of the intervention but place Lebanon in political control. Have NATO serve as agents of the lebanese state to bring the south of the country under the political control of the central government. The key here is not to force Lebanon to accept these forces but to freely offer assistance to Lebanon.

The second part of this intervention is a PR campaign who's goal is to undermine support for Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah has support because it delivers services successfully to the people of Lebanon and because of its success in driving Israel out of Lebanon. This PR campaign should be funded by Israel, USA, and the rest of NATO because this one place and one time we can win against religous extremism and it is an important outpost for liberalism and democracy in the middle east.

Jax