The Great Game

I found this post while reading the comments of a different blog. This guy gets it, why the American Elite cannot retreat from Iraq.

The saddest thing is that there is no 'withdrawal option'. There wasn't in 2004 when Kerry agreed we had to stay the course in Iraq, there won't be in 2006 when the option will be 'withdraw to Kurdish and Kuwaiti bases' and not 'withdraw from Iraq', and it won't be in 2008 when right now the likliest option looks like a "moderate" Republican to be elected.

The reason why is what all the elites know whether or not they think of it in such explicit terms. The day the United States withdraws from Iraq it ceases to be a superpower. Oh no not right away, not the very next day. But not long after. Unlike Vietnam, Iraq matters ... for oil, for reasons of middle-east dominance, for reasons of containing Iran, for reasons of Saudi and Kuwaiti ahnd Turkish stability.

As John McCain the current poll frontrunner to become the next POTUS put it on the record to the press in an interview:

I'm not worried about whether or not we are going to succeed in Iraq, because I know what all the other Senators know: that we have no choice (but to succeed).

That's me paraphrasing McCain. The exact wording doesn't vary in meaning however. Saying this however is like telling kids there is no Santa. There is no withdrawal from Iraq. Everything Americans love about being American as far as being powerful and materially rich will be lost if we lose Iraq.

There are varied reasons for this ... the loss of reputation of such a quick guerilla defeat would undermine our power, the sudden spike of oil prices that will make $65 per barrel seem like cheap nostalgia (right now Iraq's production of 2m barrels per day is the entire margin of light easily refinable crude for the entire world), the explosion of success for Islamic militantism, the sure end of any hope of containing or even slowing down Iranian nuclear WMD acquisition or proliferation, the high price of oil ending the current era of globalization overnight and triggering trade wars...

You can make any number of arguments. But the one thing stays the same, if we leave Iraq now and it goes bad then America is no longer a superpower. It will still have nukes and advanced military hardware no doubt, it won't be a toothless tiger ... but the gravy days will be gone. Debts will start getting called due, there will be a shift away from America economically, America will see a generation whose prospects for the children are far worse than what their parents were, middle-class families will go homeless reminiscent of the Grapes of wrath from a huge real estate implosion ...

whatever. The details hardly matter.

And that's why we aren't withdrawing from Iraq. Because once we do, the knives start coming out for us. America has made a LOT of enemies since 9/11. And while the public as ever remains clueless ... the people in power know. So they will lie to the American public if they have to, but they will cling to Iraq no matter what. (Link)

There is only one problem with this comment, that is America may not be a superpower anymore, in which case it will fail in Iraq, no matter how hard it tries to win. In essence it has already lost because it has not won. If it was the superpower it claims to be then there would be a peaceful client state in Iraq now. There isn't, ergo America is a great power and not a superpower.

Jax

# posted by Jacob @ 8/12/2005 10:48:00 a.m.