Friday, April 15, 2005
Is a Chinese dragon waking up?
Are things spiralling out of control in China? I have no clue. It does look like the Commists have opened some sort of pandora's box.
I bet that the Chinese authories are scared shitless right now. This level of popular emotion can easily turn against the Communists. If they had opposed it from the beginning then they could clamp down like they have done to the Falun Gong, but because they tolerated/stoked these protests from the beginning they will have a much harder time putting them down. If they use force they will lose a lot of legitimacy.
Jax
The Chinese authorities are bracing themselves for further anti-Japanese protests which could become one of the biggest displays of people power there since the Tiananmen Square demonstrations in 1989.
Internet activists are calling for demonstrations in more than a dozen cities this weekend, prompting the US embassy to issue safety warnings to its citizens, and raising doubts whether the communist government is riding or being swamped by the rising wave of nationalism.
In the past few days thousands of army veterans have rallied in Beijing for higher pensions, protesters beat up Japanese students in Shanghai, and villagers with machetes repelled 1,000 riot police in a bloody battle in Zhejiang province.
But the main target of public anger is Japan. Last weekend more than 5,000 protesters marched against Tokyo's approval of a new history textbook which whitewashes the country's wartime atrocities.
Some smashed the windows of Japanese restaurants, ripped down the posters advertising Japanese goods and stoned the country's embassy.
The Japanese consulate general in Shanghai advised its citizens to "be careful in remarks and behaviour in case of contact with Chinese people", and "avoid making provocative acts such as acting loudly in groups".
The US embassy issued a warning to its citizens which said: "The demonstrations are purportedly against Japanese interests, but could involve foreigners in general."
Instead of calling for calm, the two governments have intensified their war of words.
Tokyo has demanded an apology and compensation and its economics minister called China "a scary country".
Beijing blames Japan for the deterioration in relations. The prime minister, Wen Jaibao, said on Wednesday that China would oppose Japan's attempt to become a permanent member of the UN security council.
Such comments have emboldened the young organisers of recent anti-Japanese rallies. Nationalist websites and bulletin boards are calling for further protests to greet the Japanese foreign minister, Nobutaka Machimura, who flies in this weekend on a hastily arranged fence-mending mission.
According to one site, rallies are being planned on Saturday in Tiananmen Square and in the central districts of Shanghai, Tianjin and Hanzhou. There are calls for demonstrations in Hong Kong, Nanjing, Shenyang, Guangzhou, Jinan, Chengdu, Baoding, Changsha, Shijiazhuang, Nanchang, Haikou and Nanning on Sunday. Whether they will be allowed to proceed is uncertain.
The ambivalence of the authorities was apparent in an unusual text message recently sent out in the name of the Shanghai public security office by China Mobile.
"Demonstrations need prior permission. Public displays of patriotism must be orderly, reasonable, and legal. Express your patriotic feelings in a right manner," it said.
The Beijing police have issued a blunter statement on websites warning people that they will be punished if they join unauthorised marches.
The organisers of previous anti-Japanese protests told the Guardian that they have had more freedom to operate and more publicity since the current leadership team of President Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao took power in 2003.
Many analysts believe the communist authorities have stoked up or at least condoned the demonstrations to channel social discontent away from themselves and towards Japan.
"There is an uneasy collusion between the government and the protesters," said Linda Jakobson, senior researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.
"The authorities may be worried that the protests could spill into something else, but if they wanted to stop the protests they could have done."
Asia's two most powerful states are intense rivals for regional influence, energy resources and territory, exem plified by Japan's announcement this week that it will prospect for gas in waters near East China Sea islands calmed by both countries.
But it appears to be the Chinese people rather than their government pushing the pace of the row.
"Compared to previous anti-Japanese protests, this is a very widely supported movement," said Wenran Jiang, an associate professor of Political Science at the University of Alberta.
"We must consider that as many as 30 million people signed a petition to deny Japan's UNSC bid."
