Saturday, April 30, 2005
Greens closing on Liberals in Quebec
The Greens have passed the Conservatives and are within 4% of the liberals in Quebec. This is more due to the collapse of the Liberals then due to rising support of the Greens. Here are the results from Quebec:
Bloc -- 55%
Liberals -- 16%
Greens!! -- 12%
Conservative -- 9%
NDP -- 8%
This suggests that the mantle of federalism is up for grabs in Quebec. For that reason a clear and effective unity policy could enable a Green breakthrough in Quebec. I wouldn't have thought this possible six months ago, that the Greens would have a shot at Quebec but I think we do now.
The national results are better then the last election:
Liberal -- 38%
Conservative -- 30%
NDP -- 23%
Greens -- 10%
with a 2% margin of error. (Link)
Bloc -- 55%
Liberals -- 16%
Greens!! -- 12%
Conservative -- 9%
NDP -- 8%
This suggests that the mantle of federalism is up for grabs in Quebec. For that reason a clear and effective unity policy could enable a Green breakthrough in Quebec. I wouldn't have thought this possible six months ago, that the Greens would have a shot at Quebec but I think we do now.
The national results are better then the last election:
Liberal -- 38%
Conservative -- 30%
NDP -- 23%
Greens -- 10%
with a 2% margin of error. (Link)
Comments:
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This is a thought that needs fleshing out (I started arging it with my brother, Mike, but we never managed to finish it)...
We need a Conservative "government" [... but only for a few months, long enough to wake Canadians up to the fact that Canada faces some tough decisions that don't relate to some niggly little scandal that has little to nothing to do with good governance (it is mostly a media and opposition party generated "scandal")].
Yes, drop your jaws (I have a profound distrust of any ideology that starts and ends with a con), but I think it's something that is a necessity.
Not to clean up the "Liberal's mess" or to try to implement freakish right-wing fiscal or social policy, but to spur on a new discussion of what Federalism should entail and give sepratists a real voice (both Quebec and "western").
If Canada is to stay whole, the Liberals and NDP need to get on board and accept that Federalism has already changed, and, that it must formally change to bring Quebec into the Constitution as an equal and unique partner, once and for all.
This will by necessity mean a weaker Federal government, but I do not necessarily see this as a bad thing. Yes, it will allow Alberta to remain a breeding ground for American ideals, but it will also allow the provinces to go in the direction(s) that they feel most comfortable with. Immigration and education have profoundly changed different regions of this country in different ways -- it's time that the Federation be updated to acknowledge that. Plus, believe it or not, I don't see Alberta as a mini-America.
PS I'm not concerned about either the freakish right-wing fiscal or social policies since neither attempts will meet with much success -- over 2/3 of the country cannot in any way, shape or form tolerate their American-ultra-right brand of stupidity that I don't think they can do real damage on the social front (they might just end up destroying Canada though).
What I do fear is if the Canadian Alliance [ahem, Conservatives] form an unholy alliance with the Bloc for too long a period. Two separatist parties with an agenda to destroy Canada, but for different reasons!
Yeah, the CA/Con will be blamed for destroying Canada and they'll undergo their typical rebranding effort (every decade or two that party has to rebrand to shed the image of the last time corrupt right wingers got power) when/if Quebec leaves, BUT, and this is a REALLY BIG BUT, it will leave the right wing agenda in a MUCH stronger position.
Quebec has been an incredible thorn in the right wing's side for nearly 15 years now, ever since the collapse of the PC in 1993. If Quebec can be "convinced" to leave, that will shift the balance of power immensely. Yes, Canada-Quebec will not become as extremist as the US, BUT, what will happen is that there will be a distinct and detrimental shift of power. The "middle" will not be Paul Martin but will become Ralph Kline. Not a huge shift, but the hangers on will take on a decidely anti-human rights, pro-business tone.
Anyway, time to hit the sack. Good night for now.
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We need a Conservative "government" [... but only for a few months, long enough to wake Canadians up to the fact that Canada faces some tough decisions that don't relate to some niggly little scandal that has little to nothing to do with good governance (it is mostly a media and opposition party generated "scandal")].
Yes, drop your jaws (I have a profound distrust of any ideology that starts and ends with a con), but I think it's something that is a necessity.
Not to clean up the "Liberal's mess" or to try to implement freakish right-wing fiscal or social policy, but to spur on a new discussion of what Federalism should entail and give sepratists a real voice (both Quebec and "western").
If Canada is to stay whole, the Liberals and NDP need to get on board and accept that Federalism has already changed, and, that it must formally change to bring Quebec into the Constitution as an equal and unique partner, once and for all.
This will by necessity mean a weaker Federal government, but I do not necessarily see this as a bad thing. Yes, it will allow Alberta to remain a breeding ground for American ideals, but it will also allow the provinces to go in the direction(s) that they feel most comfortable with. Immigration and education have profoundly changed different regions of this country in different ways -- it's time that the Federation be updated to acknowledge that. Plus, believe it or not, I don't see Alberta as a mini-America.
PS I'm not concerned about either the freakish right-wing fiscal or social policies since neither attempts will meet with much success -- over 2/3 of the country cannot in any way, shape or form tolerate their American-ultra-right brand of stupidity that I don't think they can do real damage on the social front (they might just end up destroying Canada though).
What I do fear is if the Canadian Alliance [ahem, Conservatives] form an unholy alliance with the Bloc for too long a period. Two separatist parties with an agenda to destroy Canada, but for different reasons!
Yeah, the CA/Con will be blamed for destroying Canada and they'll undergo their typical rebranding effort (every decade or two that party has to rebrand to shed the image of the last time corrupt right wingers got power) when/if Quebec leaves, BUT, and this is a REALLY BIG BUT, it will leave the right wing agenda in a MUCH stronger position.
Quebec has been an incredible thorn in the right wing's side for nearly 15 years now, ever since the collapse of the PC in 1993. If Quebec can be "convinced" to leave, that will shift the balance of power immensely. Yes, Canada-Quebec will not become as extremist as the US, BUT, what will happen is that there will be a distinct and detrimental shift of power. The "middle" will not be Paul Martin but will become Ralph Kline. Not a huge shift, but the hangers on will take on a decidely anti-human rights, pro-business tone.
Anyway, time to hit the sack. Good night for now.
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: 5/04/2005 10:22:00 p.m.
: 5/04/2005 10:22:00 p.m. << Home
