Thursday, November 04, 2004
Election Results, Sort of
I came home yesterday evening, turned on the TV and found that Bush had won the election. Since that time I have had the chance to mull over what effect this would have on the world. Truthfully I see more questions than answers but I will share them with you all the same.
The first thing that will happen is Fallujah will be attacked. This has already begun. The question that this attack raises is how much restraint will be shown. Will the marines raze the city? or will their be some attempt to differentiate between insurgents and civillian? This will be our first measure of Bush without the limitation of a coming election.
Second question: How big will the deficit be? Prognosticating is not a science, but I have reason to believe that an unrestrained Bush administration will not be fiscal prudent. I expect to see very large deficits unless congress limits the spending. However, it is difficult for a republican congress to stop a republican president. The only other possible limit is if the world (read Japan and China) stops buying American debt.
Iran: The mullah's have been playing fast and loose with IAEA for the last year. They have quite likely been scrambling to create nuclear weapons (If I was on the list of the axis of evil I would be too). The Bush administration has not wanted to threatened war while the election was underway. This may change soon, especially considering the Bush adminstrations unwavering support for Isreal. Iran is the most active state supporter of Hamas, Islam Jihad and Fatah, the main palestinian terrorist groups. The evangelicals, and the neo-cons in the bush adminstration would like to see these groups destroyed and attacking their source of funding would be a way to cripple them. To the Bush adminstration Iran must be a tempting target, whether or not they act upon it is a different question.
North Korea: It is amazing how three words managed to tie to seperate problems into one thorny knot. By proclaming the "axis of evil" Bush has made sure that North Korea is watching everything that is happening in the middle east. If the US moves against Iran, North Korea will conclude that they are next. They have previously said that they will not wait for an American military build-up, but would lauch an attack as soon as they feel sufficiently threatened.
Cabinet: Powell has said that he would not stay for a second bush administration. Ashcroft has serious health problems, Rice wants to return to academia, and Rumsfield is getting old. CNN is already saying that Ashcroft will be resigning "in the near future". Count on Powell and Ashcroft leaving. Rice may be convinced to stay by offering her either the state department or defense. Wolfovitz has also been suggested as a person to fill these potential vacancies. The Bush administration has been characterized by strong ministers. Changing the key players will change the dynamic of the administration. I am not optimistic, previous vacancies have seen people promoted for loyalty and not competence. I expect this to continue.
Well, the bed has been made. Now we get to sleep in it.
The first thing that will happen is Fallujah will be attacked. This has already begun. The question that this attack raises is how much restraint will be shown. Will the marines raze the city? or will their be some attempt to differentiate between insurgents and civillian? This will be our first measure of Bush without the limitation of a coming election.
Second question: How big will the deficit be? Prognosticating is not a science, but I have reason to believe that an unrestrained Bush administration will not be fiscal prudent. I expect to see very large deficits unless congress limits the spending. However, it is difficult for a republican congress to stop a republican president. The only other possible limit is if the world (read Japan and China) stops buying American debt.
Iran: The mullah's have been playing fast and loose with IAEA for the last year. They have quite likely been scrambling to create nuclear weapons (If I was on the list of the axis of evil I would be too). The Bush administration has not wanted to threatened war while the election was underway. This may change soon, especially considering the Bush adminstrations unwavering support for Isreal. Iran is the most active state supporter of Hamas, Islam Jihad and Fatah, the main palestinian terrorist groups. The evangelicals, and the neo-cons in the bush adminstration would like to see these groups destroyed and attacking their source of funding would be a way to cripple them. To the Bush adminstration Iran must be a tempting target, whether or not they act upon it is a different question.
North Korea: It is amazing how three words managed to tie to seperate problems into one thorny knot. By proclaming the "axis of evil" Bush has made sure that North Korea is watching everything that is happening in the middle east. If the US moves against Iran, North Korea will conclude that they are next. They have previously said that they will not wait for an American military build-up, but would lauch an attack as soon as they feel sufficiently threatened.
Cabinet: Powell has said that he would not stay for a second bush administration. Ashcroft has serious health problems, Rice wants to return to academia, and Rumsfield is getting old. CNN is already saying that Ashcroft will be resigning "in the near future". Count on Powell and Ashcroft leaving. Rice may be convinced to stay by offering her either the state department or defense. Wolfovitz has also been suggested as a person to fill these potential vacancies. The Bush administration has been characterized by strong ministers. Changing the key players will change the dynamic of the administration. I am not optimistic, previous vacancies have seen people promoted for loyalty and not competence. I expect this to continue.
Well, the bed has been made. Now we get to sleep in it.
